Lessons from Karnataka Assembly Election
“Political parties have to pay the cost of avoiding the Govt. employees and pensioners who are a significant and powerful chunk of the vote bank”
Bruhaspati Samal
General Secretary
Confederation of Central Govt. Employees and Workers
Odisha State Coordination Committee
Mobile: 9437022669, eMail: bsamalbbsr@gmail.com
With a sweeping victory of 135 seats out of 224 in the recently concluded Karnataka Assembly election, the Indian National Congress party formed the Govt. on 20th May, 2023. It was a do or die situation both for BJP and Congress before 2024 General Election for which political analysts and intellectuals are scrutinizing titbits of every aspect responsible for the victory of Congress and defeat of BJP. As per Lokniti-CSDS Survey on Karnataka Assembly Poll verdict, unemployment was the biggest voting issue in Karnataka followed by poverty, lack of development, price rise, educational issues and corruption and scam charges. According to voter’s choice, while 60% voter chose Congress to vote for price rise / inflation issue, only 28% and 8% went for BJP and JDS respectively. For poverty, while 48% chose Congress to vote only 33% and 12% went for BJP and JDS respectively. Similarly, while 47% chose Congress to vote for unemployment issue, only 30% and 18% went for BJP and JDS respectively.
In a nutshell, according to the political giants, the anti-incumbency factor, reactive campaign lacking central narrative, avoidance to senior local leaders, scams and corruption charges, confusion over reservations, poor implementation of welfare schemes and more importantly the hard Hindutva factor are considered as the major reasons of failure for BJP. But one important aspect that must be discussed is the issues of the Govt. employees and pensioners especially related to restoration of Old Pension Scheme (OPS) that was completely ignored by the ruling BJP in Karnataka in spite of their bitter experience gained from Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election. In this context, the statement of Sushil Kumar Modi, a BJP Member of Parliament in Rajya Sabha and Bihar’s former Deputy Chief Minister is worth mentioning who told on 14th December, 2022, speaking at the annual conference of PRS Legislative, an independent legislative research institute in Delhi, “(Because) we didn’t revert to the Old Pension Scheme, didn’t announce anything, the results are in front of us. The BJP had to pay a price in Himachal Pradesh. There might be other reasons also but the main reason for this (election) debacle was not reverting to the Old Pension Scheme,”
The Govt. employees and pensioners are a significant and powerful chunk of the vote bank in Karnataka and had been on a dharna over the past several months for scrapping up of National Pension Scheme (NPS) and restoration of OPS which ceased on 31st March 2004 in Karnataka. Out of 9 lakh government employees in toto, some 3 lakh are covered under the NPS in the state. Following protests in March demanding a roll back of NPS, the Basavaraj Bommai-led BJP government, which did not want to risk its prospects in elections, formed a panel led by Additional Chief Secretary to study the feasibility of reintroducing OPS for employees. The panel was tasked with visiting five states which have already implemented OPS and to make suitable recommendations by the end of May. Though the move was significant, it is believed that political compulsions from higher forums forced the Pradesh Congress of Karnataka to modify its stand. It is worth mentioning here that since introduction of NPS with effect from 1st January, 2004, all the Central Govt. employees including Railways and all the State Govt. employees including Teachers across the country are conducting various agitational programmes to scrap NPS and restore OPS with the support of the Central Trade Unions. Encumbered with such continuous struggle programmes, various State Governments like Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh have rolled back to OPS. The Govt. of Andhra Pradesh has decided to offer a guaranteed pension of 33% of the last basic pay and the Govt. of Maharastra has already decided to exit from the NPS. Both the local and national BJB leadership fails to closely scrutinize these developments to avoid a repeat of Himachal Pradesh–like defeat and avoid the angering influential vote bank led by Govt. employees and pensioners. The high profile loud-campaign programmes under the leadership of the Hon’ble Prime Minister and Home Minister on behalf of BJP promising for a double-engine government in Karnataka did not work to their expectations.
But instead, the Congress tailored its campaign around local civic issues with enchanted poll promises, viz; 200 units of free electricity to each household (Gruha Jyoti), Rs.2000/- per month to head women of each family (Gruha Lakshmi), 10 Kgs of rice every month to each BPL family (Anna Bhagya), Rs. 3000 every month to unemployed youth with graduation degrees for two years and Rs. 1500 every month as an allowance to those young people with a diploma and unemployed (Yuva Nidhi). More importantly, the Congress made the OPS an electoral plank in Karnataka Assembly poll. The Congress Karnataka Chief Shri D K Shivakumar assured the protesting Govt. employees in Bengaluru on the issue of OPS with clear indication that they are actively considering it as a possible game changer ahead of the Assembly polls. In addition, the Chairman of the Congress Campaign Committee in Karnatak Shri M B Patil also said that the party will implement OPS if voted for power. Though officials and bureaucrats of the State Finance Department said that implementing OPS could deliver a blow to the state’s finances which is already in bad shape, Mr. Patil said: “We have done our homework. We will implement it without any hitch if we form the government.”
While the OPS being a defined benefit scheme without any contribution from the employee guarantees minimum pension of 50% of the last pay drawn subject to minimum of Rs.9000/- per month plus DR (7th CPC norms), there is neither any social security nor any guarantee of minimum pension under NPS even though the employee contributes 10% of his salary every month in addition to 14% similar contribution by the employer. The NPS beneficiary gets a meagre amount confined to maximum 10% of the last pay drawn as monthly pension only. To manage their families, such pensioners are now seen to work as daily-wagers, street vendors and even suicidal cases are being witnessed in case of failures.
The interesting fact is that while the ruling BJP ignored the employees and pensioners counting them for 3% only, the Congress calculated the voting strength of these 3% population. The pension does not affect a single person only. It affects the entire family as a whole. If a single family carries minimum 5 votes in average, there is 15% voting strength in the hands of these 3% employees and pensioners. In addition to their family members, they have the power to motivate others. And, they are forced to do so since their genuine grievances are not being heard either by the State Govt. or by the Central Govt. for years together not for OPS only, but for constitution of 8th CPC, filling up of all vacant posts, payment of 18 month DA / DR from January 2020 to June 2021, stoppage of implementation of labour codes, protection of Trade Union rights etc. No rally, no meeting is required for the Teachers and State Govt. employees of Public Health Department, Electricity Board, Municipality etc. and Central Govt. employees of Postal Department who are moving from door to door and have a special identity in their respective localities. They can simply canvass the members of public against unemployment, poverty, inflation etc. with normal conversation. If we see the mathematics of Karnataka election, out of 224 seats in toto, Congress won in 135 seats i.e. 60.26%, BJP 66 seats i.e. 29.46% and JDS 19, i.e. 8.48%. Had the BJP been able to manage these 15% voters, the whole equation would have been different. Thus, BJP committed a blunder by ignoring the employees and pensioners.
The assurances given by the BJP-led NDA Govt. both in 2014 and in 2019 to settle unemployment issue, to control price rise and poverty etc. which are mostly related to common citizens of India have reflected a negative trend during last 9 years which have affected not only Karnataka Assembly election but all other States also. With a serious defeat in Karnataka, now the South India is almost free from BJP. The reintroduction of OPS for Govt. employees in addition to the above burning issues has been a headache for BJP at the Centre for which it may soon need to fine-tune its strategy. The OPS is turning out to be an issue related to the masses and could damage its vote share with a major reversal of voting pattern if it is not addressed swiftly ahead of the Lok Sabha polls in 2024. The OPS will be a key issue before 2024 elections and if the BJP government remains in the illusion that they might win the elections again, they are highly mistaken.
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